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M & M’S

What a pretty beastie….

Let’s say that M&M’s candies pop out of the Earth, more or less randomly, at a rate of, I don’t know, say five million a year. Further, let’s say that those M&M’s come in the standard assortment of colors, typically brown, green, orange, yellow, blue, and finally, red. Sometimes, before it is found, a red M&M fades and becomes pink. This doesn’t happen often, but it does happen often enough that people start to investigate pink M&M’s. Let’s say that a hundred intrepid M&M collectors begin collecting the pink ones, and are pretty successful at collecting them, and more importantly, they figure out why red M&M’s turn pink (it turns out that before they’re found they’re left in the rain, then the sun bleaches them). So you end up with collections of pink M&M’s in a few homes of avid collectors. Naturally occurring M&M’s should appear roughly one every ten square miles, and assuming an equal distribution of colors, one in six is red, so a red one should be found once a year (on average) in a 60 square mile area, and some of those reds turn pink, but others do not. Your neighbor just happens to be one of the pink M&M collectors and you are walking along, a block from his house and you find a pink M&M. Not only that, a dozen other people also find Pink M&M’s as well, all within a couple blocks. What are the odds this is a naturally occurring phenomenon that has nothing to do with your neighbor and his (or her) hobby?

UPDATE: Originally posted May 10th. Reposted today because John Stewart.

I rarely update posts, but John Stewart had to pick on Hershey Pennsylvania. I wonder if he reads my blog. Granted, I was few weeks early on this, but when am I not.

A Guest Post From Michael Crichton

I have some other things I need to write soon, but today, for no particular reason, I would like to share a couple of interesting things Author Michael Crichton wrote. They are widely available, and not spoilers for the books they come from. The first is from the book ‘Jurassic Park’. The second is from ‘State of Fear’. Crichton was an author of fiction, but he was an astute man, skeptical, and well spoken. The first excerpt, from the beginning of ‘Jurassic Park’ might make some people feel bad, but it makes me very optimistic. The second, from ‘State of Fear’, is his author’s statement, sort of a postscript on the book. It depresses me a bit, primarily because it identifies a vital problem we need to overcome, and offers some steps to a solution, but it is one that will have a very difficult time gaining traction. Too many pies with too many fingers in them to easily remedy. As I’m sure you can tell from the last sentence, I’m not bringing my A game today. That’s why I’m having a deceased A list author pinch hit. But if you read these two pieces you may understand a bit more about me and where my head is most of the time.

You think man can destroy the planet? What intoxicating vanity. Let me tell you about our planet. Earth is four-and-a-half-billion-years-old. There’s been life on it for nearly that long, 3.8 billion years. Bacteria first; later the first multicellular life, then the first complex creatures in the sea, on the land. Then finally the great sweeping ages of animals, the amphibians, the dinosaurs, at last the mammals, each one enduring millions on millions of years, great dynasties of creatures rising, flourishing, dying away — all this against a background of continuous and violent upheaval. Mountain ranges thrust up, eroded away, cometary impacts, volcano eruptions, oceans rising and falling, whole continents moving, an endless, constant, violent change, colliding, buckling to make mountains over millions of years. Earth has survived everything in its time. It will certainly survive us. If all the nuclear weapons in the world went off at once and all the plants, all the animals died and the earth was sizzling hot for a hundred thousand years, life would survive, somewhere: under the soil, frozen in Arctic ice. Sooner or later, when the planet was no longer inhospitable, life would spread again. The evolutionary process would begin again. It might take a few billion years for life to regain its present variety. Of course, it would be very different from what it is now, but the earth would survive our folly, only we would not. If the ozone layer gets thinner, ultraviolet radiation sears the earth, so what? Ultraviolet radiation is good for life. It’s powerful energy. It promotes mutation, change. Many forms of life will thrive with more UV radiation. Many others will die out. Do you think this is the first time that’s happened? Think about oxygen. Necessary for life now, but oxygen is actually a metabolic poison, a corrosive glass, like fluorine. When oxygen was first produced as a waste product by certain plant cells some three billion years ago, it created a crisis for all other life on earth. Those plants were polluting the environment, exhaling a lethal gas. Earth eventually had an atmosphere incompatible with life. Nevertheless, life on earth took care of itself. In the thinking of the human being a hundred years is a long time. A hundred years ago we didn’t have cars, airplanes, computers or vaccines. It was a whole different world, but to the earth, a hundred years is nothing. A million years is nothing. This planet lives and breathes on a much vaster scale. We can’t imagine its slow and powerful rhythms, and we haven’t got the humility to try. We’ve been residents here for the blink of an eye. If we’re gone tomorrow, the earth will not miss us.

Michael Crichton’s ‘Author’s Message’ from the book State of Fear:

AUTHOR’S MESSAGE

A novel such as State of Fear, in which so many divergent views are expressed, may lead the reader to wonder where, exactly, the author stands on these issues. I have been reading environmental texts for three years, in itself a hazardous undertaking. But I have had an opportunity to look at a lot of data, and to consider many points of view. I conclude:

– We know astonishingly little about every aspect of the environment, from its past history, to its present state, to how to conserve and protect it. In every debate, all sides overstate the extent of existing knowledge and its degree of certainty.
– Atmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing, and human activity is the probable cause.
– We are also in the midst of a natural warming trend that began about 1850, as we emerged from a four-hundred-year cold spell known as the “Little Ice Age.”
– Nobody knows how much of the present warming trend might be a natural phenomenon.
– Nobody knows how much of the present warming trend might be man-made.
– Nobody knows how much warming will occur in the next century. The computer models vary by 400 percent, de facto proof that nobody knows. But if I had to guess– the only thing anyone is doing, really– I would guess the increase will be 0.812436 degrees C. There is no evidence that my guess about the state of the world one hundred years from now is any better or worse than anyone else’s. (We can’t “assess” the future, nor can we “predict” it. These are euphemisms. We can only guess. An informed guess is just a guess.)
– I suspect that part of the observed surface warming will ultimately be attributable to human activity. I suspect that the principal human effect will come from land use, and that the atmospheric component will be minor.
– Before making expensive policy decisions on the basis of climate models, I think it is reasonable to require that those models predict future temperatures accurately for a period of ten years. Twenty would be better.
– I think for anyone to believe in impending resource scarcity, after two hundred years of such false alarms, is kind of weird. I don’t know whether such a belief today is best ascribed to ignorance of history, sclerotic dogmatism, unhealthy love of Malthus, or simple pigheadedness, but it is evidently a hardy perennial in human calculation.
– There are many reasons to shift away from fossil fuels, and we will do so in the next century without legislation, financial incentives, carbon-conservation programs, or the interminable yammering of fearmongers. So far as I know, nobody had to ban horse transport in the early twentieth century.
– I suspect the people of 2100 will be much richer than we are, consume more energy, have a smaller global population, and enjoy more wilderness than we have today. I don’t think we have to worry about them.
– The current near-hysterical preoccupation with safety is at best a waste of resources and a crimp on the human spirit, and at worst an invitation to totalitarianism. Public education is desperately needed.
– I conclude that most environmental “principles” (such as sustainable development or the precautionary principle) have the effect of preserving the economic advantages of the West and thus constitute modern imperialism toward the developing world. It is a nice way of saying, “We got ours and we don’t want you to get yours, because you’ll cause too much pollution.”
– The “precautionary principle,” properly applied, forbids the precautionary principle. It is self-contradictory. The precautionary principle therefore cannot be spoken of in terms that are too harsh.
– I believe people are well intentioned. But I have great respect for the corrosive influence of bias, systematic distortions of thought, the power of rationalization, the guises of self-interest, and the inevitability of unintended consequences.
– I have more respect for people who change their views after acquiring new information than for those who cling to views they held thirty years ago. The world changes. Ideologues and zealots don’t.
– In the thirty-five-odd years since the environmental movement came into existence, science has undergone a major revolution. This revolution has brought new understanding of nonlinear dynamics, complex systems, chaos theory, catastrophe theory. It has transformed the way we think about evolution and ecology. Yet these no-longer-new ideas have hardly penetrated the thinking of environmental activists, which seems oddly fixed in the concepts and rhetoric of the 1970s.
– We haven’t the foggiest notion how to preserve what we term “wilderness,” and we had better study it in the field and learn how to do so. I see no evidence that we are conducting such research in a humble, rational, and systematic way. I therefore hold little hope for wilderness management in the twenty-first century. I blame environmental organizations every bit as much as developers and strip miners. There is no difference in outcomes between greed and incompetence.
– We need a new environmental movement, with new goals and new organizations. We need more people working in the field, in the actual environment, and fewer people behind computer screens. We need more scientists and many fewer lawyers.
– We cannot hope to manage a complex system such as the environment through litigation. We can only change its state temporarily– usually by preventing something– with eventual results that we cannot predict and ultimately cannot control.
– Nothing is more inherently political than our shared physical environment, and nothing is more ill served by allegiance to a single political party. Precisely because the environment is shared it cannot be managed by one faction according to its own economic or aesthetic preferences. Sooner or later, the opposing faction will take power, and previous policies will be reversed. Stable management of the environment requires recognition that all preferences have their place: snowmobilers and fly fishermen, dirt bikers and hikers, developers and preservationists. These preferences are at odds, and their incompatibility cannot be avoided. But resolving incompatible goals is a true function of politics.
– We desperately need a nonpartisan, blinded funding mechanism to conduct research to determine appropriate policy. Scientists are only too aware whom they are working for. Those who fund research– whether a drug company, a government agency, or an environmental organization– always have a particular outcome in mind. Research funding is almost never open-ended or open-minded. Scientists know that continued funding depends on delivering the results the funders desire. As a result, environmental organization “studies” are every bit as biased and suspect as industry “studies.” Government “studies” are similarly biased according to who is running the department or administration at the time. No faction should be given a free pass.
– I am certain there is too much certainty in the world.
– I personally experience a profound pleasure being in nature. My happiest days each year are those I spend in wilderness. I wish natural environments to be preserved for future generations. I am not satisfied they will be preserved in sufficient quantities, or with sufficient skill. I conclude that the “exploiters of the environment” include environmental organizations, government organizations, and big business. All have equally dismal track records.
– Everybody has an agenda. Except me.

I won’t say that I don’t have an agenda. But I will wish you all a happy day, just as my youngest son did me on one particular day when he was very young. He had never said it before, and he never said it again, but on that day he smiled at me, looked up, and said ‘happy day!’ in the cutest voice imaginable. 15 years later and I can still hear it when I close my eyes and concentrate. That memory, and others like it, give me hope and peace.

It is Exhausting Being Right

Don’t misunderstand, I’m wrong A LOT. But when I’m right, it’s exhausting. Here’s why. I have lots of unpopular opinions and beliefs. I have spent a lot of time examining myself, my beliefs, and how I got where I am on various issues. So these beliefs, even if they are unpopular, are reasoned. People are welcome to come to other conclusions, but to just be dismissed as an idiot or a conspiracy theorist is hurtful. When it later turns out that I’m right, and there is no acknowledgement from the people who, sometimes literally, called me stupid for believing it, it weighs me down. It’s not the dismissiveness that drains me, it’s the lack of admission when I’m vindicated. I have thick skin, as an academic I have to. I can take the ridicule. But a quick nod after the tables turn would be welcome. Whether that happens or not I won’t hold any ill will. I will still love you all. Anyway, enough whining. No one cares, and they shouldn’t. I do want to provide an example, so that when I look back on this in a few years I’ll remember what I was going on about.

Do you remember when there was this conspiracy theory that Covid-19 was created in a lab, and was not naturally occurring? Do you remember when saying that was racist? Do you remember when even referring to it as coming from China, especially calling it the Chinese Virus, was racist? I’m waiting for the renaming of German Measles and West Nile, as well as the raft of other place-named ailments. (Yes we can evolve, and that’s great, but the outrage was a bit over the top. Not to mention the virus, in all likelihood, ORIGINATED IN CHINA.) Anyway, media outlets published articles about why this ‘lab conspiracy theory’ was a bunch of crap. The articles had the major purpose of making Trump look bad, and maybe some minor purposes of, I don’t know, supporting the Chinese state, or making conservatives seem stupid to liberals. The news flash portion of that is that conservatives always look stupid to liberals because liberals are told by Ariana Huffington (and everyone else in the movies, TV, press, and on the web that are liberal) that conservatives are stupid. You tell a lie often enough and it becomes the truth, so to a certain portion of the country, conservatives are brain damaged. It’s very effective.

So, about this ‘conspiracy theory’. It was debunked by Vox. Tore it to shreds. Couldn’t be true, Vox said so. Politifact fact checked the claim that it came from a lab and debunked it as well. So did virtually every other media outlet. The Washington Post didn’t even try to debunk it, it just referred to the idea as ‘already being debunked’. But when has the Washington Post been known for doing its own work? Fauci said it couldn’t be, and also covered up that research of that type was happening in Wuhan.

But now the fix is in. Sites are scrambling to stealthily rewrite or take down those old articles. This exact thing is the reason we’re being pushed to digital books and news. You can’t edit a newspaper once it’s at my house. But you can change the front page of the New York Times online edition to say that Israel is shooting rockets at Gaza instead of the reverse with a few keystrokes, and it will be as if it had always said that. (As I write this that is a fictional example.)

Why the scramble? Well, there’s not much new data. Certainly nothing that couldn’t have been reasoned out a year or more ago. I came to the conclusion that it was likely the virus originated in the lab without half the information we have now. If you want to follow my reasoning process, for which I was roundly criticized, read the post about M&M’s elsewhere on this blog. When I came to this conclusion I did not say, and I do not say now, that the virus originated in that lab, or in any lab. I just said that it seems like the most likely thing to have happened. I still believe that. But today, unlike a week ago, this is not a conspiracy theory believed by some crazy academic who also probably thinks the Earth is flat and we didn’t go to the Moon. Today, it’s just common sense. And because it’s common sense all that conspiracy stuff has to be swept under the rug. It did its job anyway. Trump is gone. Liberals got to make fun of stupid conservatives and other rational people. Time to clean house. Time to forget they were so, so wrong, and so, so, mean to anyone who dared to disagree.

Maybe this time will be different. Maybe people are sitting at home writing letters of apology to Donald Trump, Tom Cotton, and me. Maybe Facebook and Twitter (and all the rest) will reinstate all the people who they banned and demonetized for spreading false information. Maybe someone will finally tell Raymond Donovan which office to go to to get his reputation back, but I doubt it.

Or maybe next time it will be different. Maybe when inflation hits, people will take a step back and comment kindly. Maybe when we return to judging people by the content of their character instead of the color of their skin (or whatever other intersectional stuff has become more important) those who believed it all along will be recognized as truth tellers, not hate mongers. Maybe the next time communism fails we’ll acknowledge that it has been tried and failed, unlike what we say about Russia, Cuba, Laos, Vietnam, Poland, Croatia, Ethiopia, and most especially China. Oh, and Moldova. Moldova sucks. (This is only here for my wife, who loves the movie Red.)

In a personal victory for me, perhaps when we realize that colleges are not glorified trade schools and should be preparing students for life, not to be cogs in machines, I will get much more than an apology. Maybe I can get back 15 credit hours for my students to take Latin, Comparative Religion, Fencing, or even Basket Weaving 101. This is about as likely to happen as the items in the previous paragraph. And the wold is poorer for it.

Talk for Money Fest 2021

Thursday I’ll be giving a short (less than 30 minute) talk about financing a new business using entrepreneurship contests at the Innovation Portal here in Mobile. I’m writing this post to plan out what I’m going to say, work through the details in my mind, and to give the participants something to refer back to in case they need it.

Title Slide

Hello. I’m Thomas Nelson. One of the things I do is design venture based contests to promote entrepreneurship. Venture based contests are a great precursor to starting a business. They allow entrepreneurs to validate their ideas in a low stakes environment, get valuable feedback, make connections, and sometimes provide capital to further develop and even launch a business. One question that I often get, is ‘what is entrepreneurship?’. Well, I spent the first year of my PhD program debating that with a bunch of really smart people and we decided that entrepreneurship was whatever we said it was. Not a satisfying answer, but a very useful one for an academic. Since you all are in the real world though, I’d like to offer a more specific definition instead.

Howard Stevenson’s Definition of Entrepreneurship

This is my favorite definition of entrepreneurship, and particularly salient to entrepreneurs seeking funding. Funding is just one of the necessary resources entrepreneurs need to start their businesses, but it’s a very important one. Most new businesses need cash like people need oxygen. As you’ve heard already (if you attended this conference) there are many avenues to acquire this particular resource. This session will focus mostly on one of those ways, participating in entrepreneurship competitions. Specifically…

Preview, or tell them what you’re going to tell them

We’re going to talk about what different types of competitions are out there, what they’re focused on or specialize in and how to win them. I’m going to try to avoid calling this ‘hacking’ a contest or whatever because I’m not sharing a short cut. This is real work. To be honest, winning contests is probably more work than negotiating with bankers, presenting your plan to actual venture capitalists, or mowing yards and banking the money until you have enough cash to start. But, it does have several advantages, some of which we’ve hit on already and some more we’ll cover as we go through the presentation. After giving some advice on winning, we’ll see a few examples, then look at one in detail. Finally, we’ll wrap up with a counter example that’s important to consider.

General Types of Entrepreneurship Competitions

There are probably countless types of entrepreneurship competitions and a lot of ways to think about them. I’ve broken them down based on what you have to do to compete. I’m speaking in general terms here, and each contest will have its own specifics and rules, so pay attention to what the contest documentation says, but in general, here is what you can expect. An elevator pitch competition will generally have you present a one to two minute prepared speech about your business. A business plan & presentation competition will have you giving a longer presentation, usually with a slide deck, maybe a business plan, and/or some additional supporting documentation. A lean canvas competition will have you deliver similar content to a business plan & presentation competition, but focused differently and you will not be asked to supply a business plan. Those are the three main types of competitions you are likely to run into. Hackathons are usually marathon length (Startup Weekend is 54 hours long) events where you attempt to develop a business idea as far as possible, preferably to launch. Often hackathons have in kind service prizes instead of cash. Finally, there are admission competitions. The form of admission competition is usually similar to the elevator pitch or business plan and presentation. You’re usually competing against other companies that haven’t started or are in the early stages of their business, and you’re competing for admission to something. Quite often the something is a business accelerator or other business development program, and if you win the competition you’re accepted to the program and your prize is…. wait for it… more work. There will be ongoing assistance to help you develop your business as well. Top accelerators do an amazing job of mentoring new companies and getting them ready for launch.

Focus of the Competition

Many competitions will have a specific focus. Understanding the purpose of the competition is important if you want to win. For instance, if you enter a competition where the goal of the organizers of the competition is to promote a particular industry but your business doesn’t do anything for that industry you are unlikely to win no matter how great your business idea is and no matter how good your presentation is. These competitions are often created with very specific goals in mind, and it is unlikely that they will approve of a business with a dramatically different focus. If you went through the Burger King drive through and ordered a Whopper value meal how would you feel if you received a piping hot bowl of oatmeal at the window? Not too great I’ll wager. So keep that in mind. That does not mean you can’t tailor your presentation to fit the goals of the competition, but you do need to make the connection understandable so that the judges have a reason to consider you. You can’t win if you’re not being considered.

Read the Instructions

Really, most of what I’m saying today will boil down to this. Read the instructions. Follow the instructions. Win. Other stuff is important too, and you can follow the instructions and not win, but if there were a competition hack, this would be it.

How To Win

It does come down to reading and following directions in many cases, but there is room for tailoring. First, entering the right type of competition is important. At a minimum you must be qualified to enter. For example, if it is a student competition and you are not a student, don’t enter. You can’t win. But wait. If you’re willing to share your idea and the business with a student, and you can find a student that is qualified, you’re back in consideration. If the competition’s focus doesn’t align with yours, you can either not enter, or you can make a case that it does. This may involve repositioning your business idea to a certain extent. For instance, if your business is, let’s say, a baseball training facility for elite athletes, and the competition you would like to enter is a technology focused contest you could stress that you use app guided stop motion photography to improve the swings and fielding of your clientele. Before entering the competition you thought your business was about baseball, but now you understand that it’s about technology. Let me be perfectly clear at this point. I am not saying that you should lie about your intentions, or even change the way you do business. If you have to do that, don’t enter the competition. I’m only saying that you can stress the appropriate parts of the business for the audience you have. This same business might be able, with a slightly different focus, to compete in a health and wellness category at a different competition. Baseball is good exercise, at least at some positions…. We kinda covered point three while we were talking about point one, but it’s worth mentioning twice. You must be qualified to enter the competition. If you are not, you may still get it, but if you happen to win, the error will be caught, and you’ll be out all the time effort and expense of getting to that point. Next, and this is very important, if there is information about how the candidates are being judged, be aware of it. Play to it. If there’s an actual rubric posted or handed out have your practice judges use it to evaluate you so that you can see where you need to improve. If they’re going to go through the trouble to tell you exactly what they want, you should go through the trouble to give them exactly what they want, or as close to it as you can and remain faithful to your business idea. Next, do as much supplemental research as you have time for. If the judges are listed, find out about them. If there are past winners, try to find their presentations. Call previous participants to get the low down if you’re able. Whatever it takes to get the best edge you’re capable of getting. Finally, show up and be amazing. This does not just happen. This happens from practicing, over and over. You should have practiced your presentation many many times before you’re presenting to the real judges. It should be so familiar that you can stop mid sentence, take a shot of Jack, and pick right back up. (I am not encouraging drinking, especially underage drinking, but you get my point.) {A little inside baseball here. That’s why I’m writing this post. I’ll read it tomorrow and see if I have improvements. If I do I’ll make changes. I’ll read it a few dozen times, practice it out loud several times, and expose it to my advisors. I’ll bake in their feedback and then I’ll be ready to present. This is for a presentation that I don’t even know if anyone will show up for, and that no one is going to pay me for. How much effort should you put in if the top prize means getting to start your business?}

Loser?

Even if you do all of that you’ll probably lose. So what? This is Piff the Magic Dragon. Some of you may be more familiar with his older brother, Steve. Piff lost on the first season of Penn & Teller: Fool Us. Piff lost on the tenth season of America’s Got Talent. The eventual winner was Paul Zerdin, a ventriloquist. He has a YouTube channel. Piff has a theater in Vegas named after him. Be like Piff. But how? Just realize that there are many, many benefits to competing besides the prize money, and work the competition with that in mind. Network with the judges (after the judging), the other contestants and the audience if you’re able. Sometimes people go to these events looking for businesses to fund. So, even if you don’t get prize money you could find a partner, an investor, or at least get some great ideas from the other contestants’ presentations. And, like Piff, you’ll get some practice pitching your idea and some exposure. Who knows where it might lead.

Selected Competitions

I’m not going to spend a lot of time describing these competitions. You all have Google. But I do have a few thoughts that these examples might help clarify. The Alabama Launch Pad is a long competition with lots of embedded mentoring. It costs money to enter and there’s no guarantee you’ll be accepted into the program at all, let alone win. But if you do get in you’ll get high quality mentoring and a shot at a large prize. The most important thing you’ll find out by reading about the competition is that it is (surprise, surprise) focused on improving Alabama. They’re all about job creation, so if you’re pitching a business where you’ll be importing your products from China that will be a disadvantage. It can be overcome, perhaps by employing several people in state to sell and service your product for example. But if you don’t stress that you’re unlikely to go very far. SXSW has several tracks, so you can enter in one of several categories. MIT’s Clean Energy was focused specifically on energy, but has transitioned to other green initiatives as well, so don’t think last year’s competition is the same as this years in all cases. I put Rice on this list because it’s the biggest competition I know of. You have to have a graduate student on your team as one of the principle owners, but if you qualify, they give away over a million dollars and have been doing so for a long time.

Lastly, as an example of a hackathon, I want to talk briefly about Startup Weekend. For networking, there probably isn’t a better format. However, Startup Weekend is inappropriate for working on a fully developed business idea. Although it’s often ignored, that’s against the rules and spirit of the event. The idea at Startup Weekend is to develop, from scratch, a new business, and it’s organized to do just that. It’s a better fit if you know you want to be an entrepreneur and you’re not sure what, or if you have a general idea but you haven’t fleshed it out yet. If you have a fully developed business idea and a bunch of supporting stuff like a website or a business plan you are in the wrong place. That being said, I know of several businesses that were created at Startup Weekends that are quite successful, so it might be for you.

Sample Contest

Ok, on to a quick example.

Applying Recommendations

The Lundquist Center’s New Venture Challenge is a multi stage contest. You’ll be at this a while, off and on. How long? Read the instructions. Google is your friend. (It’s not. Use DuckDuckGo instead.) You’ll need an elevator pitch, a full presentation, a business plan, and the ability to answer questions about your business. This competition is student focused but there is not an industry or other focus other than a recently added green track that you may qualify for depending on your idea. Also, half you team must be students, you need a faculty advisor, and there is A LOT of information to read and digest online. This contest is a lot of work. Most of them are. But there are prizes and connections galore to be had. If you qualify, you can get in, and you’re willing to do the work, go for it.

I Call BS!

On the first slide I told you I might be full of it. I believe that the talk you’ve just endured was at least a little informative and that you might have a better chance and using competitions to start or grow your business because you sat here. However, I need to tell you about a student I coached early on. We’ll call her Anne. Anne wanted to start a business making video diaries of people doing oversees adoptions. Imagine a really overpriced scrapbook in video format for people wealthy enough to fly private and adopt cute little Russian babies. Anyway, she came to the department I worked with with this in mind. We plugged her into a local competition, which she won. We then found other opportunities for her to compete nationwide and she did well, as the stats on the slide show. Her presentation was a video, not a PowerPoint. She talked to the video and the video talked back. She had the timing down pat. It was a very smooth presentation. If you’ve seen the scene in Jurassic Park where Colonel Sanders talks to himself on video, it was like that, but this was before Jurassic Park came out. We advised her to make her presentation longer or shorter for competitions. She changed nothing. We advised her to write a business plan. She didn’t. We advised her to tailor her presentation to the judges, or to the goals of the contest, or to anything really. She delivered the same presentation over and over again, ignoring everything we said and did other than paying for her transportation and accommodations. She did enter the competitions we told her to, but I think that’s because she didn’t find any on her own. The results speak for themselves. She broke all the rules, disregarded all the advice, except for one piece. She showed up. She was amazing. And she won. So maybe practice and professionalism is more important than reading the instructions. But it couldn’t hurt to do both.

Questions

I hope that this has been helpful to you. Are there any questions?

The FAANGs Have Struck

So pretty, so deadly

The companies that make up the FAANG stocks have acted in consort and the result is terrifying. (The companies are Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google which is now Apple, but FAANA isn’t nearly as cool an acronym.) This is important to me for two reasons. First, I believe in free markets, and what just happened shakes that belief. Second, I’ve given some advice recently that may have been pretty bad. I’ll go into each after I detail what has happened. We’ll take the FAANGs individually, but out of order.

Netflix — Netflix is the least egregious offender of thought suppression on this list, but like most media, they have an anti conservative bias. Virtue signaling on shows, ridiculing and marginalizing conservative values, leftist board members and executives, and support of organizations that burn down parts of cities are par for the course with media companies. But offering the Obamas a platform for what can only be described as a publicity machine (along with a $50 million payday) firmly seats the company as anti-conservative. At least until they offer Trump (or Mike Pence, or Ted Cruz, or hell, even Lindsey Graham) a similar deal. Liberal messages get air, conservative ones do not. All of this predates the current coordinated attack, but they are part of the FAANG, and share similar ideology, so I felt compelled to include them for completeness sake.

Twitter — Not quite a FAANG, but they sure got the ball rolling. If you’re reading this near the time I am writing it (1/12/2021) and unless you live under a rock you know where this is going. I have purposely tried to be living under a rock and this is still filtering into my life… Anyway, the President of the United States was banned from Twitter for inciting insurrection. His specific crimes were saying that he actually won the election (which 40% of Americans think he did) and saying “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol Building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” When the violence started he denounced it. Twice. But just like the lies about him not denouncing white supremacy, and saying that the KKK are ‘fine people’ his actual words won’t get out. And he can’t even make his own case. The President of the United States has been cancelled. It sends chills up my spine just writing that. Not because I like this President, I do not. But because if the sitting President can be silenced by a small group of companies what hope do the rest of us have if they disagree with us?

Facebook — Not to be left out, Facebook banned the President as well. Add this to their suppression of conservative voices through algorithm, supposed ‘fact checking’, demonetizing, and outright banning and you have a pretty good case for speech control, and thus thought control.

Green Laser Destroying Alderaan

Amazon — Amazon decided that a platform for free speech (Parler) had too much hate speech on it, and might cause further violence, so they just took it down. It was as if 8 million voices suddenly cried out in terror and were silenced. They also removed the President from Twitch, which I’m sure someone noticed I guess.

Apple — Previous to Amazon destroying Parler altogether Apple and Google removed it from their app stores, effectively eliminating any further growth and strangling the app.

Google — As mentioned above, they killed Parler, but they have been actively waging an anti-Trump anti-conservative campaign for a long time with their search engine algorithm modifications and suggested completion of word and phrase stems in their search boxes. Quick example ‘did hil’ has no suggestions in Google, presumably because no one ever looks up things like ‘did Hillary win the Nobel Prize’, or ‘did Hillary have a cat’. On DuckDuckGo (If you’re not using this instead of Google you need to be) the stem ‘did hil’ returns concede, accept defeat, claim voter fraud. Seems like things people might search for. Seems like if Google wanted to be helpful, it would supply those. But that’s none of my business.

Kermit drinking Lipton Tea by a window with a soft focus background
That’s none of my business.

So that wraps up FAANG. Let’s have a couple (dis)honorable mentions. TikTok removed the videos of President Trump asking everyone to peacefully return home. Can’t have those circulating. Destroys the narrative. YouTube (owned by Google) did the same. We really don’t want the narrative that Trump was calling for peace and order out there. It might threaten the impeachment. Snapchat suspended the President. Like with Twitch, I’m sure someone noticed. Shopify shut down online stores related to Donald Trump. And even Reddit, the self-proclaimed ‘front page of the internet’ banned the subreddit r/DonaldTrump. I know I’m missing stuff. I imagine that the President’s Pinterest account is shut down, and Air BnB has taken Trump Tower off of its property list. Hell, I bet Tom even unfriended him on MySpace.

This all sounds silly until you consider the ramifications. The sitting President of the United States has been effectively deplatformed. That won’t happen to you, of course. You’re not like him. I’m not like him. Until you or I are enough different from the powers that control communication that we need to be silenced, then, we will be. This happened to a man with nuclear launch codes. That terrifies me even more than this man having nuclear launch codes, which make no mistake, has terrified me for the last four years.

Throughout this post I’ve discussed things happening to the President and also to conservatives. I do not mean to say that the President is a conservative. Like most politicians and most people, he is conservative on some issues, liberal on others.

Part Two

But, but, but, its a free market. Yes it is. I have, from the beginning said that if Twitter wanted to ban people from their site for being conservative they should be able to do so. I also believe they should be able to ban people from their site for being too tall, or too fat, or even things that we as a society have made laws against banning for, but that issue is for another day, or probably no other day. The point is, if they want to throw someone off, it’s their site. Go for it. The market will sort it out.

Well, the market was sorting it out. Conservatives and populists were leaving Twitter and other social media sites en masse for alternatives like Parler. I did not foresee companies powerful enough to shut down markets entirely. To a certain extent Parler’s decision to host its site on Amazon’s servers was a mistake, and they can (and will) find another host. But short of buying their own equipment and hosting everything themselves they can still be held hostage and forced to comply with whatever ever speech limiting directives their server company demands. Again, it’s a private company, so up until now I’ve been ok with this.

But now we have Apple and Google eliminating the app from their devices. Between the two of them they control virtually all of the smartphone market, the way that most people now interact with the internet. For all practical purposes, the smartphone is the town square, and the the town square has just declared that some speech, legally protected by the Constitution, is not allowed. This is a problem. We are heading down the road to corporatocracy. Perhaps we’ve already arrived.

I can see an opportunity for an entrepreneur to start a server business with the goal of protecting free speech. Their product will be more expensive because they will not have the economies of scale, relationships, or experience to compete, but this can be done. Starting a new cell phone service is also a doable thing. Several companies have sprung up, some even with a conservative bent.

But protecting freedom on your mobile device seems like a very tough nut to crack. At the least you’d need a new app store. Which means people writing apps for the new app store and perhaps even new hardware to run the apps. I am pretty sure you’re not getting a second app store to run on an Apple device. It might be possible on an android phone, but keep in mind that Android is owned by Google, so they could deep six anything you did, just like they deep sixed Parler. And the existing duopoloy in the app store market serves most people well. It is unlikely to be disrupted just because some people (40% or so) lose their ability to communicate freely about things that their tech overlords don’t like.

Considering all of this I have to wonder if it’s time to make a law protecting free speech on privately owned platforms. Even six months ago I would have been dead set against this, but now I’m not so sure. I find myself wondering as I write this if WordPress will decide that it shouldn’t be seen? Will GoDaddy? Do I need to code my own site directly, and host it on a server in my bathroom? (Thanks for the idea Hill-dog!) So, that is the primary implication of all of this. We are no longer free to communicate about certain topics, full stop. Do we live with it or change it?

Second thing worth mentioning is that a while ago I recommended starting a business, either in the real world or online, catering to liberals or conservatives. I still think that is a good idea, but there is a new danger to take into account if you decide to do it. Keep in mind that if you start an online business and you sell through Amazon, rely on people finding you through Google, market through Facebook or Twitter, post videos on YouTube or Twitch, sell on Shopify, expect people to find you on their mobile devices, or just about any other thing you could possibly do online, your connection to a tech company is a potential threat. Some injustice, real, perceived, or even imagined could take your business away from you. And that is the most frightening thing of all.

Best Song Ever!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw4OCBBO2hg&feature=youtu.be

YouTube won’t let me embed this video, but it brought a smile to my face.

Getting Past the Pandemic and the Next One

The estimates vary, but I’ll pick a number. The number doesn’t matter as much as the implications. Twenty percent of businesses have gone out of business due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the various governments’ responses to same. There has been much political and journalistic hay made from this topic, but I’m going to attempt to go in a different direction here. (Bear with me if I get sidetracked, this topic makes me furious and I might type something and mash the post button before deleting it.)

Covid is. It is part of the landscape now. Maybe we get past it, maybe we don’t. Maybe things ‘return to normal’ maybe they don’t. Also, Covid will be. It will happen again. It has been demonstrated that the populace can be cajoled, coerced, shamed, and even welded (in China, coming soon to other dictatorships) into their homes. The world has demonstrated its ability to shut down. Now that we know it can be done, it will be done again.

So we have two facts. We have an altered present, and the likelihood of an altered future. It does no good to whine and complain. Believe me, I’ve tried. What we must do instead of (or along with if you insist) the whining is figure out how to not be in that twenty percent. This is a first pass at figuring that out.

Some businesses were more affected than others by the shutdown. Obviously being an ‘essential’ business, such as a liquor store (whatever) was an advantage. So one strategy might be to position your business as essential in some way. What is essential has varied from state to state, and I haven’t kept up with what is essential in other countries. But here, if you were a gas station, a supermarket, a hospital, or a bank you were golden. In my home state of Alabama hardware stores and technology stores were also essential. (I wonder how Governor Ivy is enjoying her new MacBook Pro courtesy of Best Buy, and her new Home Depot privacy fence. Just kidding, I know of no such thing.) If on the other hand you were in California, no computers for you and no do it yourself homeowner projects, no matter how much free time you have. But on the plus side you could make a quick run to the pot shop and pick up some get you high gummies. Heck, you could even have them delivered. If you’re fortunate enough to live in Colorado you have all of the above, plus firearms stores. (Alabama, hear that?) The point is, know what the gods of your state deem essential.

If you can’t be essential, find a way to comply. Most restaurants were able, with a little ingenuity, able to set up take away services that complied with the Covid regulations. Virtually all of these things were nonsensical, but they fit the letter of the law and allowed the restaurant a chance to continue to exist. When I say nonsensical I mean that they are unlikely to really make a difference in the spread of the virus. For example, if you go through a fast food drive through they may put your food on a tray for you to grab instead of handing it to you. They put it on the tray. The virus can live on the bag or cup. But you didn’t take it from their hands, so you’re good. They made it. For all you know they spit in it. But it was on a tray, so it’s all good. Whatever. The point is to find a way to satisfy the compliance authority that you are obedient and fearful, and you can remain open. (Damn it, I really didn’t want this to be this kind of article, but this is what happens when I think about this. Ignore my attitude about this point and find a way to comply so you can remain open and save your business.)

It’s too late to build a loving customer base if you’re in the thick of it. But if you survive this, start thinking seriously about your customers. Hanging a shingle and being open for business isn’t good enough any more. Your customers need to be willing to cross the street for you. They need to be willing to cross the town for you. They need to be willing to violate curfew for you. Not literally, but you get the point. Having customers is no longer enough. You need a tribe. I know that sounds a bit nuts, especially if you sell, well, nuts or something, but a devoted, even rabid, customer base can carry you through things like this when casual customers will just stay home and eat Ramen. Your customers have to be people to you, and you have to be important to them. During this pandemic I’ve eaten at a few restaurants. Far fewer than I used to. And no new ones. As a matter of fact, I’d say ninety percent of my eating out has been at three restaurants, two of which I know the owner personally, the third is directly across from where I work.

When people are fearful, they don’t explore. I visit one hardware store, two groceries, one art supply store, no book stores, and Amazon. I do not love Amazon, but it’s familiar, and painless. That’s about it. The drivers of my spending are personal relationships and familiarity.

For the present, try to pivot. Explore delivery options. Explore alternative advertising. Look into partnerships. Try to alter the government’s regulations. (I’m not sure who talked the government into allowing restaurants to sell cocktails to go in Alabama, but kudos. We don’t even have a lottery and now we have drive through liquor, well done. But that didn’t happen on its own.)

In severe circumstances, rebel. Call attention to your plight. Here in Alabama we’ve had barbers and hairdressers say enough is enough and start their businesses back up as safely as they could. Individual stories ended differently, but the final result is that now, if you feel comfortable doing so, you can get a haircut in Alabama. One bartender in New York declared his bar an autonomous zone. He started giving away liquor and food for donation. At the time of this writing he’s losing his battle with ‘the man’ but these things can turn on a dime. I like his chances. I would have liked them more if he, and all his business neighbors had banned together and opened in unison. At the end of the day the only enforceable rules are those that we as a society agree to. This is the concept of the ‘consent of the governed’ in action.

***Quick side story here, because it’s relevant to the above paragraph. After September 11th, we put a lot of changes into the airline boarding process. I will not dignify this process by calling it a security process, because it is not. It’s caught exactly zero terrorists, and resulted in lots of fines for good citizens. It’s a security theater process. It’s there, like surgical masks and little circles on the floor to make us feel safe. Anyway, the TSA let this dude through who had a bomb hidden in his shoe. They didn’t catch him. They let him through. He got caught trying to light it on fire on the plane. Now we all take off our shoes. This other cat had a bomb in his underwear. Do we take off our underwear? No. Why? We. do. not. consent. That’s it. If we consented, we’d have naked flying and anal probes before each flight but we said no. So, if the rules are too bad, if they’re killing your business, build an army and peacefully resist.***

That’s all I can think of regarding what you can do now. But what can you do to prepare for next time? Well, let’s ponder. I guess the first thing was mentioned above. Build a tribe. Be fanatical in your customer relations. It will help to build those relations if your product or service is phenomenal as well, so work on that too I guess.

Next, realize that this is going to happen again. Have contingency plans. Maybe someone will come up with an insurance product. Don’t be surprised.

Ask yourself, would you rather have a hundred percent of a smaller business or zero percent of a larger one. What I’m pointing to here is that business owners often leverage money to grow their business. In good times debt is not so bad. In bad times it is a millstone around your neck. Imagine two businesses, each with a few employees, some inventory, and a building. One business owns the building and the inventory, but the other has a lease on the building and the inventory is floor planned from a supplier. Which one lasts longer when things go south? There is a place for debt, but weigh your debt load against possible downside events, even black swan type events like Covid. Financial stability will increase your business’s chances of survival.

Have a team. At a minimum (and I’ve been preaching this long before Covid hit) you need an insurance agent, a lawyer, and a banker. I prefer all of them to be local, and with smaller companies. Yes Mega Bank might give you a slightly better rate on a loan, but if you need help dealing with a government loan program who, BY NAME, is going to help you with that? If there is a disagreement about what is covered by your policy, who is more likely to come to bat for you, your Geico phone rep, or the State Farm agent you just had dinner with last month? Speaking of which, put these three people on your board of advisors and buy them dinner once or twice a year. Having them in the same room will be worth the tab.

Apply for everything. There is a lot of help out there. This time around there were grants to pay employees, loans, so many handouts. And if you’re a business person (I hate writing this but we’re tying to save your business so I’ll suck it up. You should too.) these are for you. There is no room for pride. The economy is depending on you. That is why we’re giving away trillions of dollars. Shut up and take the money. Grouse and take the money. Call it theft if you want to but take the money. The collective we has made a decision that your business is worth supporting for the greater good of the country. You can disagree. I do. But take it and stay in business. And don’t tell me you’re tired of filling out forms. I sympathize and could do a whole rant on the ‘how’ of how we do things. But it is what it is. When you signed up to be a business owner, the bargain you made was to work eighty hours a week to avoid a forty hour week. It’s time to live up to that bargain. You’re not in your business making sales, or this would be a moot point. Go to work.

Get creative now. Ask yourself, how could you go digital? How could you sell on Amazon? How could your business survive on ten percent of its current customers? You may not have an answer to every question, but ask them. Try to answer them. Do it now, with the craziest things you can think of, so that when crazy happens, you’re prepared. Right now I’d be asking myself, how is my business different if the country is in a civil war. Do I think that’s going to happen? Nope. Not very likely at all. But it’s worth considering. I’d be asking what happens if inflation hits really, really hard. Will it? Don’t know. Think it’s more likely than civil war, and definitely worth preparing for. What happens to my business if we get very high tax rates? Is it likely? Don’t know. Somewhere between the first two conjectures. But it’s worth game planning now, so I have an answer when it becomes very important to have an answer. You get the idea.

I’ve laid out a couple lists of things to consider to attempt to covid (or whatever) proof your business. I’ve laid out what to do if you’re in it, and what to do to make it easier next time. These are my thoughts, and mine alone. I’ve stayed mostly on topic, which is pretty good for me. In order to improve this list, let me know what you think. (Note the friendly comment box below.) If this ends up getting a wider audience I’ll try to make sense of the comments and put together a more orderly and reasoned essay. One thing, don’t argue about Covid. I do not care what you think. It’s been politicized to the point that virtually no one is rational and I won’t engage. I’ll just delete. Go forth. Create value. Profit. Enjoy life. Give back.

From the Gas Pump to the White House

Growing up poor gives one certain insights that might be unavailable to more well off people. Well off children don’t hang out at gas stations, at least in my experience. They certainly don’t work at gas stations. They don’t have friends who pump gas. And they probably don’t think about or notice gas prices. Although I’ve never worked at a gas station, I have spent many afternoons and evenings in the Mini Marts, the Seven Elevens and Clark stations. I’ve waited, sometimes with a car on fumes, for the gas price to drop a few cents, a habit I have kept to this day, much to the chagrin of my wife and other passengers in my car. The tension when my low fuel light is on and I’m driving conservatively, passing gas station after gas station, because I know the Love’s 20 miles up the road is going to have cheaper gas is palpable. Sometimes I’m not sure I’ll make it. My passengers KNOW I’m not going to make it. It’s fun.

Where is he going with all this I can hear you think. Well, it’s simple. I know how gas prices move. The futures market traders think they know, and maybe at their level they do, but if so, why are they still working? I know how the price goes up a penny, down a nickel, and so on. It’s collusion. Not actionable collusion, but collusion none the less. It’s collusion by market signal. There is no meeting in a darkened room, full of cigar smoke, to set the price. That would be illegal. It’s much easier to just set some rules, make some suggestions, and have everything sort itself out. Here’s how it works.

You’re Shell. You have positioned your product as a premium product, so you set your rules, at the station level, if anyone raises their price, you raise yours so that you’re a penny more expensive. If you’re cheaper than the competition, you’ll lose business. Counter intuitive, yes. But it works. Shell’s customers are brand loyal, or credit card dependent. (Shell made bank on gas cards when I was growing up. I don’t have a gas card any more, or an individual store credit card for that matter, but I assume they still exist.)

Now let’s say you’re Clark Oil. Your rules are if two stores go up, you match the raise, if one goes down you match that. You don’t want to be lower than everyone else for three reasons. First, if you stay low, you’ll be flooded with business. That’s OK in the short term, but the attendant doesn’t want to work that hard, and the owner doesn’t want to hire for something that is going to be temporary in nature. Second, you will force the competition down, which will keep them from working with you. Third, if you’re selling at a lower price you’re making less money. Obvious, I know, but I’m trying to be thorough. When I said the competition won’t work with you I meant it. You have the numbers of all the other local stations behind the counter. When you’re not busy you call them up and ask them what they’re selling gas for. And they tell you. Sometimes, they even tell you their plans. This sounds like collusion, but it happens at the local level, perpetrated by gas station attendants, and they’re not making a penny off the price of gas. They make (made back then) $3.75 an hour, $5 an hour if they were lucky. This information just makes their job easier.

We could discuss other companies, but suffice it to say they have a system in place that causes gasoline prices to move together. Perhaps there is a ‘prime mover’ that causes the original move, or maybe it’s different each time. But it doesn’t really matter. The job gets done. What on earth does that have to do with the White House? I know. It’s non-obvious. If it were obvious, some well to do Harvard graduate would have noticed. And perhaps they have. Enough ‘gas station loiterers’ have noticed. So, what do they see?

The proud association of sometimes less educated, sometimes referred to as deplorables, or bitter clingers, have seen that the political landscape being rigged just as surely as the gasoline prices. It’s easy to point to major events as collusion. The five most important counties in the country shutting down their voting machines at the same time, then coming back on line with all five counties flipped resoundingly from Trump To Biden. The voting machines that seem to have infrequent, occasional errors, always in Biden’s favor. Just the voting irregularities could go on for thousands of words, but let’s move on from voting altogether.

On social media, if you have a conservative opinion, or fact, or meme, or even legitimate hate speech, you get censored. Liberals do not. This happens on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Do they call each other up? Probably. But they’re not colluding. They just agree. And they stand to make less money if they alienate 33-50% of their audience. I don’t think it can be collusion for a business to conspire to lose customers. Maybe it can. That’s a question for another day. If someone dares to create a new social network they try, as best as they are able to shut it down, discredit it, or get it regulated out of existence. No opinion but theirs gets the light of day.

On dictionary.com the definitions of words are changed. Court packing was changed so that the phrase could be weaponized against Trump and then actual court packing (as it was originally defined) can be accomplished without protest once Biden-Harris take over. The phrase sexual preference had the same thing happen after Amy Coney Barrett used it in her confirmation hearing. Did they call up Facebook, or even the degenerate from Hawaii that tried to upbraid her for using the term? Nope. Didn’t need to. They saw the news, and changed the price. That’s all.

In schools and libraries across America we have Drag Queen Story Hour. The purpose of this is to normalize the ideas of cross dressing, homosexuality, and anything goes sex. Maybe these are great things. I don’t know. I don’t care. But I wouldn’t expose a five year old to sexual ideas of any kind. Maybe I’m old fashioned, but most of this center-right country agrees with me. But who organized the Drag Queens? George Soros? Unlikely. They just did it. They saw a piece they could do to move the needle in the direction they prefer.

I think those examples are enough to make the point. Just to spell it out, maybe there are huge ominous forces at work. But maybe people are just noticing the gas price changing, and adjusting on their own. That’s how markets work. One final thought, in case it’s not obvious. It need not be that the great majority of people are for these changes. It’s not that everyone is part of the price setting, or political mood setting. It’s just a few. Acting in concert, but independently, working towards a common goal. In my home town, specifically in the area I lived, worked, and tracked gas prices, there were about a hundred people who controlled it, and ten thousand who were harmed or benefited from it. Cultural anthropologist Margaret Mead famously said “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.” Ask yourself, has the world changed? If you think so, do you think it’s just possible that a small group could be driving that change?

Look at all the hospitals collapsing

I promised an update and mea culpa on an article I wrote recently. Here’s the link to that article. http://drthomasnelson.com/another-prediction/

It had to do with hospitals collapsing. Here’s the quote that made me write the article.

“We need somebody to say this is what’s happening, this is how bad it is,” he advised. “We’re going to see hospitals collapsing in the next two to three weeks. And this is what we’ve got to do to address that. And just remember one thing, for the next three weeks the cases are already in pipeline. The people who are infected this morning will be the cases of next week in the hospital, a few days after that, and will be in the intensive care rooms and dying after that. So even if we did everything we could right now, we would still not turn this thing around for literally three to four more weeks.”

Dr. Michael Osterholm, on MSNBC

Today is the day. Three weeks, give or take. The Atlantic says it’s happened, at least until you read the article. No, sadly for the fearmongers, the hospitals haven’t collapsed. Maybe the next disaster will break your way. I sure hope so. I’m getting so tired of being in a constant panic over things that don’t happen. But I have to ask you, how do you feel about constantly betting against the health, safety, well being, and prosperity of the United States of America? It would make me sick to my stomach, especially if I was wrong every time I did it. Doubly sick. Once for wishing evil on my fellow countrymen, and again for being so. damn. wrong. Over and over. But that’s just me.

The Biggest Saddest Business Opportunity of My Life

I was working on a business plan today for a client and it hit me. We are in one of those times when it takes very little originality to create a HUGE business. It’s a big, scary idea and it sets my heart beating faster and my fingers trembling when I think of the possibilities and the repercussions.

Here’s the TLDR. Every business out there that used to serve all of us is ripe for a competitor to come on the market and eat half of its lunch.

We are so politically divided that I believe any business could generate significant customer traffic and sales simply by putting a philosophical stake in the ground. The proprietor or company would have to be willing to put up with (and budget for) MASSIVE publicity, especially if they chose to be the ‘conservative’ version of the business.

And when I say any business, I mean any business. Even accidental exposure of political or religious viewpoints drives traffic and anti-traffic. Look at Chick-fil-A. They make a fine sandwich. Is it better than Popeye’s? I don’t know. They’re both great. Haven’t tried Wendy’s yet but…wait, this isn’t about chicken….I’ve been in Mobile too long. OK. Back on track. They make a fine sandwich. But do you think their sandwich is so good that people wait in line a half hour (or more sometimes) in a drive through to purchase one? The customer is getting more than a sandwich. They’re getting to support a Christian company that has been manhandled by the LGBTQ (note to self, revisit this article periodically and change letter salad to whatever abbreviation is currently accepted) Twitter mob. At least that is what they feel like they’re doing. It takes a little longer, but it’s for a good cause, they think, so they sit in their Hummers and destroy the environment over an overrated sandwich, their alters on the left think. Who’s right? Doesn’t matter. Chick-fil-A wins.

I’m not cherry picking. The AARP was the only game in town until 2007. Why was AMAC founded? Politics. AARP is a liberal organization, and they support liberal causes. (They also sell insurance, and against the best interests of their members, supported the Affordable Care Act because it would benefit the company at the expense of their members, but that’s a whole other story). I don’t want to support ‘The Squad’ so I belong to AMAC. Not me personally, I’m not old enough. Just the generic conservative. Cell Phone companies have been started because AT&T & Verizon donate to Planned Parenthood. If you’re conservative, check out Patriot Mobile. They’ll bribe different sets of politicians and/or donate to different charities. Even pillows are political. If you’re a Sean Hannity fan you sleep on Mike Lindel’s ‘My Pillow’ and probably Giza Dream Sheets as well. (Full disclosure, I have a ‘My Pillow’. It’s all right. No Dream Sheets, although I do have Boll And Branch sheets which absolutely live up to the hype and got their start on Rush Limbaugh, and a Simplisafe alarm on my house, which was also first sold on AM talk radio.) The point is political beliefs are being leveraged at an incredible rate for successful businesses. Black Rifle Coffee. Marriott Hotels. (Trump Hotels now I suppose as well.) Hobby Lobby instead of Michael’s. Even Vegas isn’t safe. If you’re really conservative you stay at Las Vegas Sands properties, the Venetian and Palazzo. Well, not me. You have to be rich AND conservative to stay there. I’ve never been willing to pay the rate. OK, I think I’ve made my point. Except for social media.

Social media is for all practical purposes a Blue Ocean (read Blue Ocean Strategy) for conservative platforms. There are a few startups, but they don’t really have traction like Facebook and Twitter. But one will. It could be yours if you jump in aggressively. And look how much the Zuck and Gandalf — I mean Dorsey — are worth. A conservative with guts, determination and style could own half of America’s clicks in short order. DuckDuckGo is trying to be nonpolitical to counteract Google’s partisanship, but why not a conservative search engine? There are several conservative news sites, that area is getting crowded, but only because conservatism has been practically banned from old media, and more or less completely banned from social media. Jump in. The water’s red, but still blue. (That works on a couple levels.)

Even accidentally revealing your political views can gain or lose you your entire business. Refusing to bake a cake for one group, not opening on Sunday, posting that you think people should immigrate to this country legally, whatever. It could all drive business your way, or away.

You do have to stay away from certain stances though. For instance, you could not have a business and not allow African Americans. I’m pretty sure you couldn’t have a business and not allow Caucasians, but I’m not certain. You can look it up. Some things are protected. Race, color, religion, national origin. Gender was added. There has been some effort to add gender identity and sexual orientation. Not sure if it’s been successful.

But this is about political beliefs, primarily, and how to profit. Most companies are racing to the left, so if you start an organization and race to the right you will almost automatically1 pick up 30% of the customers. The particular example that put me on this train of though is the National Association of Realtors. They’ve recently updated their…I don’t know, some sort of compliance document. If you’re a member of the NAR and you post something they deem offensive they’ll kick you out of their club and report you to the realtor police to get your license revoked. Joe McCarthy would be super proud. If you’re interested in the specifics look for Article 10-5 associated with the NAR. I’m not. I’m interested in the business opportunity. If I want to be a realtor (I don’t) and if I want to post bible verses on my social media (I don’t) they can bully me into shutting up, or take away my ability to earn a living. So why not start another anti-NAR? It worked for AMAC. It even worked on the NRA. Yes, the NRA was too liberal for many of its members (and had massive malfeasance, but again that’s another story, and one I’ll probably never tell). Along came the National Association for Gun Rights.

What other businesses can be politicized? My guess is all of them, if done properly. I’ve seen coffee shops, antique malls, restaurants, and many others. If you see a business you like, copy it and add political spin, and you can siphon off part of their customer base, whether or not you add value. It’s not pretty, but I bet it’s effective. There’s an old saying that a town which can not support one lawyer can easily support two. I’ve always thought that was sad, and a commentary on lawyers. It is sad, but I don’t think it says much about lawyers. I think it says more about us.

And that’s why this is the saddest business opportunity of my life. All we’re talking about when we talk about political belief is segmenting the market by one one component of its psychographic profile. (For those of you not mired in business stuff, your psychographic profile is just like your demographic profile, except instead of being made up of what you make, how old you are, and so on, it’s made up of what you think and how you feel.) And should it matter AT ALL who you think stole what election from who when you’re buying a chicken sandwich for lunch instead of eating the celery sticks with hummus that you conspicuously brought from home so your wife would see? No, it shouldn’t. But it does. And the market gets what the market wants. So, as long as these divisions exist, I would be remiss in my duty as an entrevangelist if I did not make you aware of this exciting opportunity, no matter how personally distasteful I find the situation that created its existence.

  1. No business is automatically successful. This is an exaggeration for effect. You will still have to work your tail off to make any business successful. However, I do believe that this component, as part of a competent overall business strategy, will help to make your business more likely to be successful, at least until we get over this partisan madness. But you can cross that bridge when you come to it.